Super Bowl LV takes place this weekend, with the defending champions Kansas Chief Chiefs taking on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the title.
EA Sports historically simulates the Big Game and releases the results of the match-up, with this year’s simulation picking the Chiefs to win their second straight Super Bowl by taking down the Bucs for the crown by a score of 37-27.
According to the simulation, Patrick Mahomes will lead his team to victory and take home the Super Bowl MVP award for a second straight year, while Brady will put up a good effort in the loss. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but EA’s predictions in the past have been eerily accurate, like in 2015 when the simulation predicted the Patriots’ comeback victory against the Seattle Seahawks–and the final score–along with the exact type of pass play that made it happen. It was spooky. But EA isn’t always that accurate with its predictions.
With the Big Game dominating the sporting world this week, we’re looking back at the past 10 years of EA Sports Madden Super Bowl simulations and predictions. As you’ll see, EA’s track record for predicting the winner has been a mix. In the past 10 years, EA’s simulation has accurately predicted the winner five times and gotten it wrong the other five times.
EA has conducted Super Bowl simulations with Madden since 2004. and found that EA has gotten it right 11 times in the past 17 years for a success rate of around 64 percent. Looking at the historical data crunched by the site, EA got off to a hot start by accurately predicting the Super Bowl winners four straight years, from Super Bowl 38 to Super Bowl 41. Since then, however, the simulation never got it right more than two years in a row, but it also never got it wrong for more than two straight years.
What does it all mean? Looking at the past decade-plus, EA has accurately predicted the Super Bowl winner 50% of the time, which is impressive. This Super Bowl will be unlike any other, as Brady and the Bucs become the first team in the history of football to have a home game for the Super Bowl. But unfortunately for them, it may not feel exactly like home field advantage, as the NFL only sold a limited number of seats due to the COVID-19 crisis.
Off the field, it’s shaping up to be a different Super Bowl broadcast as well, with Budweiser, Pepsi, and other huge brands electing to pull out entirely or shift their ad money to their other brands. We’re also , which is uncommon for the big game.
Despite all of that, it’s shaping up to be an exciting game on the field with two high-powered teams competing on the biggest stage for football’s biggest event. Here is a rundown of EA’s Madden Super Bowl simulations over the past years, looking at what was predicted and then what actually happened in real life.
| Super Bowl | EA Prediction | Actual Result | Right Or Wrong? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl 54 | KC 35, SF 31 | KC 31, SF 20 | Right! |
| Super Bowl 53 | LA 30, NE 27 | NE 13, LA 3 | Wrong! |
| Super Bowl 52 | NE 24, PHI 20 | PHI 41, NE 33 | Wrong! |
| Super Bowl 51 | NE 27, ATL 25 | NE 34, ATL 28 | Right! |
| Super Bowl 50 | CAR 24, DEN 20 | DEN 24, CAR 10 | Wrong! |
| Super Bowl 49 | NE 28, SEA 24 | NE 28, SEA 24 | Spooky Good! |
| Super Bowl 48 | DEN 31, SEA 28 | SEA 43, DEN 8 | Wrong! |
| Super Bowl 47 | BAL 27, SF 24 | BAL 34, SF 31 | Right! |
| Super Bowl 46 | NYG 27, NE 24 | NYG 21, NE 17 | Right! |